Being a trader on daily basis (and I am making a distinction between trading and investing) is a great study in public opinion and perception. It also demonstrates to what extent people base their actions on hopes, feelings, delusions, and whatnot, as opposed to sound reason. At best, we as a species seem to plod along in the dark, the only thing lit being where we’ve been, and we’re somehow able to make decent corrections along the way based on that knowledge. Nobody knows the future, but everyone believes they have an idea of what it will bring, based upon the past. Fortunately, it seems to be an imperfect but certainly useful guide. The real key to being successful as a trader is to understand the past, know that you cannot predict the future, but also realize that everyone else thinks they can. It’s not so hard to know what people think is going to happen; they’ll tell you. Then you just have to figure out how to profit from them being wrong — which they almost always are. My favorite trading blogger is a mathematician guy out of New York, Carl Futia. He is, without it even being close,…
Entries from February 2007
February 1st, 2007 · Comments Off · Politics & Culture
February 2nd, 2007 · Comments Off · Politics & Culture
That would be the NFL: The NFL is telling Fall Creek Baptist Church in Indianapolis that the church’s plans to use a wall projector to show the game at a party for church members and guests would violate copyright laws. NFL officials spotted a promotion of Fall Creek’s “Super Bowl Bash” on the church Web site last week and sent pastor John D. Newland a letter — via FedEx overnight — demanding the party be canceled. Initially, the league objected to the church’s plan to charge partygoers a fee to attend and that the church used the license-protected words “Super Bowl” in its promotions. Newland told the NFL his church would not charge partygoers — the fee had been intended only to pay for snacks — and that it would drop the use of the forbidden words. But the NFL wouldn’t bite. It objected to the church’s plans to use a projector to show the game on what effectively was a 12-foot-wide screen. It said the law limits the church to one TV no bigger than 55 inches. I, for one, will not be watching a single second of this week’s game — nor a single second of any of…
February 2nd, 2007 · 1 Comment · Politics & Culture
I’ve made a conscious effort around here to dwell not so heavily on the negative. That doesn’t mean it’s not there, or that it’s to be ignored or downplayed, but simply a recognition that there are positive things to highlight, too, as well as some pointed questions to ask — in addition to always only passing summary judgment — and I want to do more of that. Still, it’s very difficult to shake it — the urge to highlight the negative and pass swift judgment — when the shame and disgrace is this bad. The whole story, here. Now, you can come up with any characterization of officers Melody Spencer and Kevin Schnell of the Kansas City Police Department that you like. For me, a single word came to mind as I watched that video: animals. I was watching a Discovery HD show last night and, amazingly, saw nighttime footage of a pride of lions in Botswana take down a large bull elephant because it was the only thing left to eat. But they’re predators. That’s their nature and we can’t fault them for it. Give them a larger brain; put them in uniform; arm them with a club, handcuffs,…
February 2nd, 2007 · 3 Comments · Politics & Culture
“Hillary!” utters a truth. Did you catch it? “Take” is one of the correct words. It’s accurate. It’s a truth. She does indeed intend to take those profits. But in the overall context, she’s being dishonest. She uses the word “take” because of its moral ambiguity. If she were honest, she would have used the word “steal,” and the overall context would be honest in addition to truthful. And her political career would be over. This is why you have no end to politicians telling you that they have told the truth. They rarely, if ever, claim to have been honest. Watch for it. (Venlet)
February 3rd, 2007 · Comments Off · Politics & Culture
Here’s quite a disturbing video documentary from the UK via Richard Dawkins’ site. It’s an hour long, but I just kept it open in a tab and watched it in bits and pieces: Dispatches – Undercover Mosque. I can’t say that I leaned anything really new, but it’s a pretty integrated piece, covering a lot of ground surrounding the network in the UK of extremist Islam that seeks to radicalize and energize their own flocks, as well as to proselytize the young. In that context, it’s difficult not to see this as simply the natural consequence of human and social evolution. Our values, as well as our “vices” — that we are nevertheless free to engage in — are pushing up against their culture and they’re fighting back. I really don’t believe that Muslims on a large scale want to take over the world, or even to cripple the West’s ability to generate the sort of material wealth (and “vices”) it does. Essentially, I think, this is an instance where they correctly see that the West does not offer them any spiritual values — only material ones — and those material values are seen as corrosive and displacing of their…
February 3rd, 2007 · 1 Comment · Politics & Culture
Oh, my. I must confess: these are quite entertaining. Hilarious. I dare you to get past episodes one and two without getting hooked into watching all six.
February 3rd, 2007 · 10 Comments · Politics & Culture
Nope. Just second to last. In terms of accepting plain old facts. And for those of you who have yet to understand what theory means in a scientific context…? Note that one may indeed refer to the theory of gravity. Way to get out in front of the future, America!