In an email to a trading group I sponsor, I wrote early Monday that I guessed the market would be up pretty big this week. Indeed, the S&P posted a 34pt gain for nearly 2.5%, the largest up-week that it has been able to hold onto since mid-March. Unfortunately, I only caught half of it. Wednesday’s price action looked like it could stall, so I took modest profits and am now in wait to catch the next move down, which will probably be necessary to attract sufficient additional buyers for an eventual blast to the upside, squeezing the shorts to cover, equaling even more buying and new highs this fall. As always, my focus will be to look for signs that this outlook is wrong, rather than to pick and choose among data that "tends" to "confirm" what I "think" or would like to see happen.
But it was a good week. I’ll take it. And here’s Tom Petty bringin’ it, in what I think is probably the best Rap song ever recorded.