I’ll be perfectly happy to be declared wrong; and indeed, I claim no special certainty in the matter (nobody does), but for my money (and it’s exactly where my mouth is), all this fear being stoked up about the markets, credit bubble, sub-prime meltdown, and so on, presents what I think is an enormous buying opportunity. Perhaps not a summer of ’98 buying opportunity (you’ll recall the scary 10% plunge that scared all the weak hands out of the market — their shares being sold off to the "smart money" — if indeed there is such a thing), but it could be even more.
I’ll set aside, for now, judgments regarding the propriety of printing our way to illusory stability, but I tend to regard credit with a different perspective than most people. In the most fundamental sense, credit is the selling (at a discount) of future labor, creativity, productivity, and so on. So, in that light, I can never really tell if firing up the printing presses is really going to be bad for anyone on a practical financial level because I can’t predict the future. Moreover, I think we tend to always underestimate future productivity because we discount the multiplicative and compounding effects of new knowledge and technology.
Considered another way, a Black Swan can always come our way and when it does (a bad one), it could possibly make little difference whether we have an inflated fiat currency or a gold backed "stable" one. Then again, a good Black Swan could come along that changes everything forever, Biotech being one possible area. Nobody knows.
Anyway, the markets are volatile these days and I’ve been having a blast being (mostly) on the right side of the moves. The key in a market like this is to not be afraid to change your mind from minute to minute. Mapping out a path because it’s "right" is a formula for certain and quick death.