We’re still touch & go, but a 2.5% gain (S&P 500) on the week is pretty conventional after a week like the last. If there’s a positive note in it it, it’s gotta be today. We started strong, retraced only about half of it, and from about 12 Eastern to close there was barely a bump in the road up; and on a Friday too, at a time when "fear of holding over the weekend" is quite common.
So the question is: is this the end of the mini-correction, or just the top of the ‘B’ wave in a larger one? Hell if I know, but my gut is with the former. I think we’re likely to revisit some lower prices next week, but if so my guess is we’ll make a higher low than last week. I expect — or speculate, rather — that we might see the annual "Santa Clause Rally" kicking up any day now (if it hasn’t begun already). If the Fed cuts another 25 basis points at next week’s FOMC meeting, look out above. I’m looking for S&P 500 in the 1630-1650 range by Xmas.
Or, we could just sing the blues.