As some of you know, I quit trading the markets full time at the end of 2007. I’ll not be looking back. I’d rather work on a startup any day. That said, I do still poke my nose under the hood of the financial markets from time to time, and I think we may have finally hit bottom, from which a rather explosive rally could develop.
Yea, I know; I know. America’s comeuppance is for a complete meltdown, depression, bankruptcy and asset crashes all over, and the ensuing misery that ought to befall such a financially irresponsible nation.
On the other hand, of far more importance is that I haven’t seen such an opportunity to be buying (stocks, real estate) or starting a business in a long time. Guarantees? No, certainly not, but you will be far better off in the long run if you do the opposite of what everyone else does. Go lean and mean when times are great. Then, when recession or other financial woes hit, you can more likely weather the storm; and then when things are at their worst, begin your expansion and big risk taking.
Just looking at all the negative sentiment in headlines all over the world convinces me that we’re on the verge of a turn-around. Since when does the press (or public sentiment) ever get anything right, or have any clue what they’re talking about? Of course, if things do turn around, it will be seen by all the current Chicken Littles as just another “asset bubble,” “credit bubble,” “bailout,” “giveaway,” and so on. I have always come from a different perspective: sunrise has meaning because of sunset; and what would light be without darkness? Euphoria without pain? Effortlessness without trouble? Riches without poverty? How do you know a boom, if you haven’t seen a bust?
No guarantees. I have little fear of losing everything I own, and I also understand that I have only limited means to prevent something like that from happening. That’s freedom, in my book. I loath the state for getting in my way, and its meddling in everything from top to bottom, but it’s but one factor. Freedom offers no guarantees and in fact is something quite opposite. If you think you’re getting squeezed by the stochastic interactions of the state’s machinations in public policy and the economy, just wait until you have real political and economic freedom. I, of course, would gladly accept that kind of real freedom and the consequences that come with it. But very few others would.