Anthropogenic Global Warming Laf

 Object lesson in dogma:

  1. There exists long term global warming. It's not cyclical per se, but is probably driven by positive feedback (hockey stick) and not negative feedback—as predominates nature, but not nuclear fission.
  2. Human activities towards human prosperity is what's principally driving it.

Problem is, none of the models that contemplate #1 and #2 have predicted the reality. So, what is one to do? Simple, since #1 and #2 are "settled," one must come up with ways to explain misbehaving data.

There Are Now 52 Explanations For The Pause In Global Warming

It’s been a busy year for climate scientists, who have been trying to explain why there has been no global warming for nearly two decades.

The Daily Caller News Foundation reported in February there were eight mainstream explanations for the pause, but there are now a whopping 52 explanations for why there has been no warming trend for the last 215 months.

Explanations for the pause in global warming range from ocean oscillation cycles to Chinese coal plant emissions, volcanic activity to some scientists even saying there is no hiatus in warming.

One recent study found that the warming hiatus is due to “heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic.”

As per usual when lots of money is at stake, "we never checked our premises," is not one of the 52 explanations for the absence of observed global warming for 215 months and counting.

STOP POLE DISCRIMINATION NOW!

Everywhere you look, discrimination. So disheartening.

Black, brown, yellow, red. Ha! WHITE!

FEmale. Ha! Male. Just male. WOman. Man.

ANTarctic. Ha! Arctic. Just arctic.

Antarctica sets new record for sea ice

The sea ice surrounding Antarctica, which, as I reported in my book, has been steadily increasing throughout the period of satellite measurement that began in 1979, has hit a new all-time record high for areal coverage.

The new record anomaly for Southern Hemisphere sea ice, the ice encircling the southernmost continent, is 2.074 million square kilometers and was posted for the first time by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign’s The Cryosphere Today early Sunday morning. [...]

Walt Meier, formerly of the National Snow and Ice Data Center and currently of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has previously said that Antarctic sea ice, which has little ice that survives year to year, is less significant than Arctic sea ice to the climate system.

“While the Arctic has seen large decreases through the year in all sectors, the Antarctic has a very regional signal – with highs in some areas and lows in others,” Meier said in 2013. “And of course, the Arctic volume is decreasing substantially through the loss of old ice. The Antarctic, which has very little old ice, hasn’t much of a volume change, relatively speaking.”

The new Antarctic record anomaly was more than 10 percent greater than the previous record.

The steady growth of Antarctic sea ice and its influence on global sea ice appeared to provide a public relations problem, at a minimum, for those warning of global warming’s menace. According to Meier and some other climatologists, global sea ice area is simply not a metric to consider when examining the climate system.

“A plot of global sea ice is just not informative or useful,” Meier said.

Global sea ice, during the course of the last year and a half, has seen its most robust 18-month period of the last 13 years, maintaining, on average, a positive anomaly for an 18-month period for the first time since 2001.

Phil Jones, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, waded into the global sea ice analysis in 2013 as well.

“Adding the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents doesn’t make that much sense as the two regions are at opposite ends of the world, and the seasons are opposite,” Jones said at the time.

As I also reported in Don’t Sell Your Coat, the temperature at the South Pole has been declining during the past four decades as well.

Earth pole bias? All ice is not created equal? Or, is it really just too fucking complex to understand? Seems to be a heads I win, tails you lose deal: increases in antarctic ice are dismissed as irrelevant, while decreases in arctic ice are highly relevant.

Oh wait...didn't Jones say, “Adding the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents doesn’t make that much sense as the two regions are at opposite ends of the world, and the seasons are opposite.”

Wow, is it worse than I I even imagined?

This borders on HEMISPHERIC DISCRIMINATION!

Let's get this straight: CHRISTMAS BELONGS IN WINTER!

Update: Jesus, it's so easy—because we're so conditioned—to miss forms of discrimination. Meier says:

“And of course, the Arctic volume is decreasing substantially through the loss of old ice. The Antarctic, which has very little old ice, hasn’t much of a volume change, relatively speaking.”

Now, tell me that's not reverse age discrimination.

Sunday Tidbits: Latest in Paleo Podcast, Global Warming and Hot Pockets

~ Wow do I ever like all of the health and fitness podcast guys out there, and have thoroughly enjoyed each and every interview I've done. And also, with so much going on lately in Paleoland, everything shiny and new doesn't always show up on my radar right away; or, if it does, it often takes weeks or even months for me to call forth the alert aircraft to go investigate. Well, in this case, Angelo Coppola (seriously, go check out those before & after pics) came to me and I have taken serious notice...no, very serious notice.

There's two reasons to take Angelo's show very seriously. First, it's a podcast devoted to Paleo, and from an unabashed, unapologetic evolutionary basis to boot.

This Week in Paleo is a blog and a weekly podcast (iTunes). At the intersection of scientific evidence and evolutionary clues left to us by our ancestors, the Paleo Diet and Lifestyle is a unique approach to nutrition and fitness. [emphasis added]

The second reason to take Angelo very seriously is that the production value of his free podcast is absolutely astonishing in my view. Not only is Angelo very polished and professional behind the microphone, but the sound quality, the music, the audio clips, the transitions...well, everything is as though you are listening to something coming from a multi-millon dollar sound studio complete with a host under contract for millions, and a team of engineers and producers to make things happen. As I gather, this began as "This Week in Paleo" podcast and with about 20 shows in the can, it got picked up by the 5by5 network -- no doubt in no small part due to the aforementioned production value.

So yes, Angelo contacted me a week or so ago to invite me on the show and as I gather, it will be for the duration, as we talk not only about what I'm up to and this blog, but also about various current events in Paleoland. I'm really looking forward to it. If anyone has specific topic suggestions feel free to drop them in comments. I believe it will be episode #17.

So, if you haven't been listening to the programing, then you might want to get going. If you have been listening, then let other readers know what you think in the comments. Oh, and by the way, in episode 12, Angelo and frequent commenter here, J. Stanton, discuss The Real Health Debate beginning at about 28:00 into the program, audio clips of the debate and all. As I said, this guy is pro all the way.

~ Had to shovel about 4-5 inches of "global warming" -- ...oh, yea, it's "climate change," now, such that anything and everything can be accounted for, just as with the religious "it's God's will" meme -- off the deck this morning. Friday when we arrived here in Arnold about 2pm in the afternoon, we were sitting on the deck in shorts, in 75 degree sunshine, with no so much a flake of snow left on the ground anywhere. The latest I've seen snow up here -- since we acquired this place about 8 years ago -- was early April. It's May 15, just over a month away from the summer solstice.

1000000103
Global Warming - May 15, 2011, 4,500 ft. elevation

~ Longtime readers are well aware of my penchant for bashing Hot Pockets as the sort of meta-touchstone for crap food. Well, a commenter on yesterday's post came up with this Jim Gaffigan clips about...Hot Pockets. Funny.

~ Late Breaking Update: I hadn't taken note that the trailer for In Search of The Perfect Human Diet, a documentary film by C.J. Hunt, which I've mentioned before and donated to, was actually a new promo and not the one that has been around for a couple of years. Take a look.

And help support the post-production if you can. This is just the anecdote needed for that T. Colin Campbell propaganda film, Forks over Knives.

Politics and Delusions Roundup

Here's a few things I'd wanted to blog going back a bit.

  • Billy calls it "psychosis." I call it "automatic lying." Take your pick with regard to Senator Harry Reid, D-NV. See if you can manage to get through all four minutes without your head exploding. 
  • Via my cousin Steve, who defends large companies against bullshit tort claims in large and complex business litigation, this excellent WSJ Op-Ed by Bret Stephens: Global Warming as Mass Neurosis.

A second explanation is theological. Surely it is no accident that the principal catastrophe predicted by global warming alarmists is diluvian in nature. Surely it is not a coincidence that modern-day environmentalists are awfully biblical in their critique of the depredations of modern society: "And it repented the LORD that he had made man on the earth, and it grieved him at his heart." That's Genesis, but it sounds like Jim Hansen.

And surely it is in keeping with this essentially religious outlook that the "solutions" chiefly offered to global warming involve radical changes to personal behavior, all of them with an ascetic, virtue-centric bent: drive less, buy less, walk lightly upon the earth and so on. A light carbon footprint has become the 21st-century equivalent of sexual abstinence.

Finally, there is a psychological explanation. Listen carefully to the global warming alarmists, and the main theme that emerges is that what the developed world needs is a large dose of penance. What's remarkable is the extent to which penance sells among a mostly secular audience. What is there to be penitent about?

As it turns out, a lot, at least if you're inclined to believe that our successes are undeserved and that prosperity is morally suspect. In this view, global warming is nature's great comeuppance, affirming as nothing else our guilty conscience for our worldly success.

In "The Varieties of Religious Experience," William James distinguishes between healthy, life-affirming religion and the monastically inclined, "morbid-minded" religion of the sick-souled. Global warming is sick-souled religion.

  • Then there's the irreplaceable George Carlin, RIP. There were a number of post-worthy video clips I saw in the days following his death, but this one -- "The Public Sucks. Fuck Hope" -- is easily the best, just like Jay says. Here's what I love about this clip: condescending contempt. He's dead on, and it's exactly how I view the average dumbshit American voter (99%+).

Backpeddle

Wanna know how stupid they think you are?

"Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict"

Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.

Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Yeah, uh-huh. Until 2015. Right. Got it.

This is how it begins, folks. They're never going to just come out and admit to being the self-serving-at-your-expense con men they all are, with the thief and liar Al Gore at their helm. Instead, they're going to bank on how dreadfully illiterate and stupid most of the world's population is.

Setting the ethics of it aside, it's a damn good bet. Even when temperatures begin to decline, who do you think will be taking credit, and how many will extend it?

(link: McPhillips, who also links to a interview of Roy Spencer, author of Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor. That interview ("H3: Obama's Judgment") begins about 10 minutes in and you can just advance the slider bar to get there.)

Religion Masquerading as “Science”

Here's an email out to a friend, who thinks he's not religious. I beg to differ.

J:

In reference to our discussion of religion yesterday...

In the Telegraph UK:

In view of what is now at stake, such quasi-religious incantations masquerading as science are something we can no longer afford. We should get back to proper science before it is too late.

[emphasis added]

...

Climate Audit, by Steve McIntyre, the guy who in 2006/7 got NASA to admit to a Y2K bug in their climate model, which had established 2006 as the warmest year on record (i.e., the last year for which complete data existed). Once the error was corrected -- which I doubt you heard even a whisper about in the mainstream media -- 2006 falls to number 4, with 1934 being the warmest ever recorded, followed by 1998 in second, and 1921 in third.

...

Anyway, on the Antarctic ice pack, from yesterday, just a few hours after our conversation:

Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Reaches "Unprecedented" Levels

On a global basis, world sea ice in April 2008 reached levels that were “unprecedented” for the month of April in over 25 years. Levels are the third highest (for April) since the commencement of records in 1979, exceeded only by levels in 1979 and 1982. This continues a pattern established earlier in 2008, as global sea ice in March 2008 was also the third highest March on record, while January 2008 sea ice was the second highest January on record. It was also the second highest single month in the past 20 years (second only to Sept 1996).

...

Warren Meyer, probably the best layman out there. Not a professional scientist, nor beholden to anyone, he's nonetheless Princeton and Harvard educated. He has a Climate Skeptic Blog, and his approach is somewhat unique, as thoroughly outlined in his 10-minute video presentation. Guaranteed you've never been exposed to anything remotely like this in the mainstream, though I've been thoroughly aware of it for some time.

Don't Panic - Flaws in Catastrophic Global Warming Forecasts

He has also put together a book: A Layman's Guide to Man-Made Global Warming

....

The floating garbage...I'd heard about it, but curiously have never seen a picture (like satellite, or even from an aircraft) that demonstrates that "a floating island the size of Texas" is a proper, accurate, and honest metaphor, rather than, say, "an area the size of Texas where the trash is X times more concentrated than on average."

I've spent years at sea, and I've seen my share of trash, every now and then (I've traveled in both those areas, i.e., off Hawaii, and off Japan -- extensively so the latter). Sometimes the encounters are more frequent, i.e., the concentration is greater, but it's never, ever remotely anything like an "island." That's just true-believe hysteria for the consumption of alarmists and human-haters.

...

Back to Anthropogenic Global Warming. I'm quite certain there has been some warming, but the amount attributable to industrial civilization and to other factors like solar cycles and cloud-influencing cosmic radiation is simply not determined with any sort of the confidence that ought to be necessary before we go off and starve the third world by using their corn in our gas tanks, standing in the way of their industrial development, and instituting policy changes with economic impacts in the tens of trillions of dollars.

Back when the last IPCC report came out that declared "consensus," and that the "debate is now over," I said with some degree of confidence that that point will one day mark the high-water level of this whole fraud, and it's tracking right on course. Climate scientists, who were once content to sit by the sidelines and not make waves, figuring the science would get sorted out one way or the other, didn't like being lumped into a contrived, fraudulent consensus, and they've been coming out of the woodwork in droves. Just now, in the last year, skeptical pieces have been showing up in mainstream media. It'll be another 2-3 years before the public at large realizes that what they "knew" was an element of their ignorance and general gullibility.

...Or, you can just keep reciting your enviro-catechisms.

NewsFlash: Super Layman Climate Skeptic Warren Meyer Admits He’s Been Wrong All Along

It's a sad day.