Archive for October 2007
Mac Update
Been busy with all things computing. It's actually going better than I expected, but I'm taking it very slow. Yesterday was mostly an exercise in sorting out solutions for my new Mac. (I got the 15.4" MacBook Pro at 2.4Ghz. Why? Well I considered the amazing MacPro, but the low end price for that was equal to the high end MacBook, and frankly, these things are so fast now that it just isn't necessary. Plus, the MacBook runs the Apple 30" Cinema Display at the full 2560 x 1600 pixels of resolution that required a high-end gamer's card for my PC. So, with a bluetooth keyboard and mouse paired with the MacBook, I'll have a 15.4" screen, plus a 30" screen right beside it. I would have even considered the Mac Mini, but it doesn't run the 30" monitor at full res. Otherwise it would have been fine, and simple. I set my wife up with the 1.66Ghz processor a bit over a year ago and it's easily as fast as my high-end PC for anything I need to do.) So; solutions. Well, I still have a company and we run enterprise stuff there, including Exchange Server which is really...
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It’s Time
Let me show you a couple of charts, both covering the last five years. The first is from a company that was trading in the mid-20s five years ago, and is now trading in the mid-30s, so it's doing a reasonable, average, entrenched established 10% per year, on average. Gains are so modest that compounding isn't much of a factor. Now here's the second company, covering the same space of time. It was trading at under $10 five years ago, and is now closing in on $200, a 2000% gain averaging a doubling (100%) of your investment year to year (compounding is a ginormous factor). Perhaps you've already guessed: Apple vs. Microsoft. I trust I don't need to inform you which is which. Now, unless you've already dismissed this -- as I used to do with bullish and enthusiastic claims about Apple (when it was trading at $65) -- perhaps it's time to rethink. It's no secret to those in the know that Microsoft's Vista has been an utter debacle, with online purchases of Windows XP now outstripping online sales of Vista. Many of these are people actually downgrading their new PCs to the former OS. I've worked with Vista...
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Closing Bell YouTubing
We're still touch & go, but a 2.5% gain (S&P 500) on the week is pretty conventional after a week like the last. If there's a positive note in it it, it's gotta be today. We started strong, retraced only about half of it, and from about 12 Eastern to close there was barely a bump in the road up; and on a Friday too, at a time when "fear of holding over the weekend" is quite common. So the question is: is this the end of the mini-correction, or just the top of the 'B' wave in a larger one? Hell if I know, but my gut is with the former. I think we're likely to revisit some lower prices next week, but if so my guess is we'll make a higher low than last week. I expect -- or speculate, rather -- that we might see the annual "Santa Clause Rally" kicking up any day now (if it hasn't begun already). If the Fed cuts another 25 basis points at next week's FOMC meeting, look out above. I'm looking for S&P 500 in the 1630-1650 range by Xmas. Or, we could just sing the blues.
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Idle News Notes
Post workout at the gym yesterday, standing at the vanity counter watching SoCal fire coverage: Waiting with baited breath...waiting for the reportage of the fire's random destruction through various neighborhoods -- utterly destroying some while leaving others unscathed -- to be interpreted by some reporter or fortunate homeowner as divine providence. Happily, surprisingly, I waited in vain. A young (maybe 8) but articulate boy on his way to see if his house still stands is interviewed whilst stuck in traffic that's being held up for the jobholder-in-chief's motorcade: "At a point you just don't care about the president; I just want to go home." The contempt on the boy's face and in his voice is unmistakable. It's never too early or too late to teach children general and utter contempt for politicians as a baseline attitude. In other words, contempt ought to be the default position, until otherwise proven. (Yea, I understand he's probably just got leftie parents in this case.) On the way to meet my brother for breakfast this morning, on NPR in the car: Finally some sanity in the Genarlow Wilson case. But it never should have taken this long, and most particularly, should never have been...
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One Small Request
Can we please, please just stop asking "how we're going to pay" for tax cuts? There's simply no way around the fact that it's a dishonest question or proposition. "Pay," in this context, refers to necessary budgetary considerations for anybody considering a re-ordering of his or her values. Values they own and have earned. A thief can stop stealing, or steal less, any time he wants. He doesn't have to pay to stop stealing, or to steal less.
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Fuck…
...George W. Bush. Forever. That is all.
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Judge for Yourselves
But do watch the whole thing. It's quite a composition, and frankly, I have no idea of the veracity. You know what it makes me think of? This general collection; only, with mostly different underlying motivations.
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A Little Something to Blog About
There was a time, not too long ago, when I thought that an overly-obsessive Ron Paul mania was sweeping the Internet. As much as I have always admired Ron Paul’s rock-solid commitment to liberty and peace, along with his remarkable dedication to intellectual study, I didn’t yearn to hear libertarians do live blogging play-by-plays of his every speech and every step, and I didn’t care to read a trillion posts about pointless straw polls in trivial places. Amen, though it might not have seemed that way from how I've been playing it. Believe it or not, I've been extremely selective amongst the massive amount of available footage. Karen -- though I often don't agree with her -- and I'm not as much of a "goldbug" as are the Rothbardians -- puts up something that pretty much completely captures why Paul has captured my moral, emotional, and financial support; though I'll still not be voting for anyone. Read the whole thing.
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Ho-Hum
Funny how things change. Both my mom and dad expressed some concern to me today because I'd not been seen or heard from in about a week -- much like around here on the blog. Yet, back when I was often traipsing around tropical southwestern Pacific paradises, I'd go a month or two without a word to anyone on the home world. What can I say? There's just nothing in the news that interests me to blog about, just now. I almost wrote something about the fire (we have family in Vista -- Poway too; all is OK) but didn't get even a paragraph into that. Then there was some buzz about Ron Paul fans getting shut out of various Republican enclaves online, and how that shit-for-brains Hannity only regards a Fox call-in poll relevant if it happens to confirm his own moronic delusions. But ho-hum anyway; je me fais chier. Tell you what. Here's some pics, taken this weekend up in Muphy's, just a 15 minute jaunt down the hill from the cabin. There's a couple each from Twisted Oak Winery, Ironstone Winery, and Stevenot Winery. That's six out of 51 on a day too beautiful to even describe....
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“Management Fee”
I just sent an email out to a property manager for one of my rentals -- this one being in Sacramento -- which explained that there are two aspects to "management fee;" one being the fee part, which they have no trouble with, but the other being management, which part apparently needs some clarification. Printed on the standard monthly account statement was an item for plumbing and a modest $65 charge, billed to me, which of course is fine when due to material defect of some sort. Dutifully attached to the statement was a copy of the plumber's invoice, which reads: "Toilet had no water. Water valve was turned off. Turned water on. Toilet is working." Speechless.
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Closing Bell Carnage
Well that didn't work out. At that point we'd shed about 45 points off the high of the S&P 500, and now we're 30 points more off that. That's just shy of 5% off last Thursday's highest price. Needless to say: my profits from the last two week are all gone, and then some. But I'm still in all my positions. The reasonably good thing about this week, and even today, is that it was all rather orderly all the way down. Most big corrections start with a breathtaking selloff, and then bottom out with an even more breathtaking selloff, to the point where there's just too many bargains and buyers start jumping in. Sentiment was getting pretty bullish, so this week probably put a needed cure to that. The question arises: if I was going to be long this market, then why not wait until now, and buy in on weakness, at a bargain? That's exactly what you want to do if you're investing for the long haul. Rather than put your money in funds on a set day of the month, have your deposit go to a money market, and whenever there's a decent sell off, buy then....
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A Most Curious Thing (2 things)
There are a couple of elements to this tragic story that I find curiously compelling, and I doubt anyone from the West can adequately explain it. That amidst such fervent primitivity, there resides nuclear weapons. That amidst such fervent primitivity, they had elected a woman to rule them; whereas, we enlightened ones are just considering it seriously for the first time ever. I want to think that, either we're already eventually screwed (the nukes), or we simply have not much of a very good clue or grasp of their experience and nature as human beings. I'll be dammed if I can make sense of it. From time to time I entertain myself in the idle speculation that nearly everyone having nukes; i.e., the ability to unilaterally destroy the modern world (yes, I understand about delivery mechanisms -- it's a technical point) just might elevate us to a parity where each nation can just go about their own business. I readily admit it's risky enough to be dismissed out of hand as either too silly or too uncertain. In the larger sense, everyone ought to come to grips with the conditions under which they'd be willing to give up their lives....
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Let Children Touch Hot Stoves
I really can't think of any other meaningful way to regard this. Under the ruse of ending harassment, a number of universities have established speech codes. Bowdoin College has banned jokes and stories "experienced by others as harassing." Brown University has banned "verbal behavior" that "produces feelings of impotence, anger or disenfranchisement" whether "unintentional or intentional." University of Connecticut has outlawed "inappropriately directed laughter." Colby College has banned any speech that could lead to a loss of self-esteem. "Suggestive looks" are banned at Bryn Mawr College and "unwelcomed flirtations" at Haverford College. I think it's important that such insanity be allowed -- encouraged, even -- to play itself out to its furthest adolescent conclusions and implications. There's really only one reason, at base, that things have progressed to this dismal and obviously absurd state, and that's that the "psychological victim" industry is hurting. They have little choice but to turn it up to the highest levels of absurdity possible; before it burns out and all the busybodies doing such "important work" find they have to feed and cloth themselves. Some will find the next scam people everywhere are falling for. A few will go on to eventually put away childish...
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“This is John Galt Speaking”
Parts three and four in one. Parts one and two, here. This is the most well done to date, I think. Excellent.
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Feel the Heat
Bad week in the markets on bad news. In only three days, we've got wringing of hands, gnashing of teeth, and Bears at the gates. Seen from the perspective of three days or a week, that's one interpretation; but how about a couple of months? Anything can happen, but that lower trend line has held twice, the aqua line is the 30-day moving average -- which is tracking the lower trend line (very common) -- and the test of the trend line and the moving average are converging on a test of the most recent break out from a couple of weeks ago. All very classic stuff, and in my view, it would be far more surprising for it to break further to the downside than it would be to churn around, build some support (support or resistance is marked by price ranges in which there was high trading volume), and take off once again -- or just simply take off right about now -- to make new highs by next week, maybe even Friday. Hey; take a look here. My broker, the very awesome Thinkorswim, just had their Russians release a new version of the Java trading platform, which...
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Paul and the Religious Right
Via Rockwell, Ron Paul's getting lots of nods at CBN, the Christian Broadcasting Network. Some semblance of Paul's true and underlying message of freedom -- and "Christlike" humility and charity -- seems to be sinking in. I didn't blog the news surrounding the "Values" Voter Debate, because it was clear to me that there was still too much misunderstanding about what Paul stands for. Evangelicals on the right, having gained a lot of political sway, have moved from their traditional and valid position of opposing federal, state, and local incursions into their peaceful religious practices, to increasingly support and promote political activism to impose their [religious] values on everyone else. And, of course, everyone flocks to the feds, because it's just too irresistible: the temptation of being able to get one piece of legislation passed and have uniformity throughout the land, rather than dealing with 50 jurisdictions, some of which you're certain to fail in. But it looks like are lot of them are coming to realize that Paul holds many of the same values they do; but he rightly holds that except for those issues expressly under the purview of the U.S. Constitution, these are matters for individuals, families,...
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Campaign ROI
Everyone talks about what a campaign raises and spends, but whovever calculates a retunr on investment? These guys & gals did. Do you grasp the enormity of those numbers? Doesn't mean a win, by any stretch, but it's no less remarkable. Any campaign manager is a fool not to try to understand this. Via Rockwell.
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Do you find this fall-off-your-chair funny?
...the government appears to have realized that political programs, such as those showing confessions extracted from democracy advocates in prison, have not achieved its goal of building domestic unity... Via Rockwell.
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Watch This
Now, tell me he doesn't understand what he's talking about with respect to monetary policy (do you know what you're talking about?). I'm extremely gratified to know that he's a step ahead of me. Of all his policy proposals, I'm least existed about the "goldbugism." I've previously explained why I don't think creating money to extend credit (to legitimate, credit worthy entities) is a problem, and indeed, I believe it's a profoundly important financial innovation. That said, looks like he wants gold and silver-backed currency to compete. So let the competition begin. That, in itself, might make the thing more responsible. It's true that the dollar already competes against many other currencies on a 24/7 world market that trades in volumes hundreds of times greater than our stock exchanges. But it's fiat, credit currencies competing against other fiat, credit currencies. It would be interesting to see how a non inflatable currency would fair. My guess is that not too well, provided the credit currencies print responsibly. As a trader, I can tell you: there' nothing like flexible liquidity, if yo know how to use it (I do: but only because of badly misusing it, once).
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“The Betrayal of the American Right”
LewRockwell.com has seen fit to publish this work by Murray Rothbard on the web, piece by piece. Isn't that nice, and aren't we lucky? I'd had this on my list to acquire, but I hate to order one book at a time, and plus, I've already got so many books in my Sony Reader, and I just love love love reading books that way (far better than paper books, and I never thought I'd say that). In addition to the ebooks you can purchase and upload, it'll also accept Word files and PDFs. So now I'll be able to carry it around with my other 40+ books stored in my reader.
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