Yes, Indeed

Best single day in the market for me since I began serious short-term swing trading ’round six months ago.

I’ve learned a lot in that time; won some, lost some, but the last three weeks have been excruciating — forcing me to refine my systems considerably. I was buying good stocks/options, but my entry timing was often off, I was missing good sell signals so that winning trades often turned to losing trades, and losing trades were not exited early, when the projected reasons for getting into the trade were not quickly verified.

That’s all changed, now, and the result has been that my trading the last week has been 100% winning. We’re in the sort of choppy market that is the absolute most difficult in which to profit consistently. If you can make good returns in the sort of market we’ve had the last few months, you’ll profit hugely in a clear bull or bear situation.

OK, so, the market was up about 1.7%, today. Here’s how I did: out of my 11 positions, I’m up in 9 of them (8 of those are options plays). One position is unchanged from Fiday’s close, and I’m down one whole penny in one stock posiotion that equates to $3 for the 300 shares owned. Overall, 6.5% gain on the day. That’s better than halfway back from my losses over the last three weeks.

Hey, anyone catch Google (GOOG)? Here’s the 5-day chart:


Friday, it was up about $36 on the day, on the heels of teriffic revenues and earnings reports. But I think it’s way over-priced. Of course it’s way over priced. It’s 1999 all over again with this stock. The question is not if Google will tank, but when. Right now, analysts predict the stock going to something like $420. It might, which will only mean that it’ll be even more insanely priced (kind of like California real estate).

I stay as far away as I can get from over-hyped stocks like this. Way too much emotion dictating things — even though Google, qua company, stands upon excellent fundamentals. Revenues, earnings, growth, management, business plan. All excellent. This, of course, is a far cry from the late ’90s when the Wall Street fraudsters (yes, fraud) were issuing IPOs on companies that not only had not ever generated any profits, but in many cases, never any revenues.

Over the weekend, I half toyed with buying one November $340 Put contract for $1,190, just in case the stock dove back down to its $300 – $310 level today. Luckily, I decided to wait to see how the first half-hour of trading went, and by the time I checked, around 10:15 EST or so, it was already trading at almost $350. Had I bought that Put, I’d be out  400 bucks on the trade in one day, plus commissions both ways. Google was up almost $9 on the day, today.

Here’s a new Trading Journal Blog by a fellow INVESTools practitioner.

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