Is Bitcoin A Bubble At $8,000? How About At $1 Million, $10, Or even $100 Million?

Bitcoin is reported to have been in a bubble for nearly eight years and counting. It’s a very elastic bubble, since it can go from a $1 bubble to an $8,000 bubble. Initially, when trading at fractions of a penny—where it took thousands of Bitcoin to buy the first pizza—it was largely seen as a novelty. I wasn’t a participant, unfortunately, and wouldn’t buy my first coin until 2014 when it was a mega-bubble at $618, down from super-mega-bubble at $1,000 at the end of 2013, igniting its biggest selloff ever by lots of deer-in-headlights who realized they’re millionaires on a lark, a dare, true belief, or whatever. Just certainly not anything rational. That would be impossible, since it’s a bubble, where mockery and derision is simply a priori, baked in the cake.

Because, it’s not supposed to happen. No experts predicted it, unlike all the things the experts got completely right throughout human history:

  • They really shut down those Luddites at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. No expert touted that people could lose jobs and that would be bad. In fact, they embraced the job and skill migration inherent in rapid industrial progress.
  • The first thing the experts did with the invention of the automobile was admonish and assure everyone that horses and buggies were done, obsolete, that the automobile was here to stay. The future.
  • When labor and money-saving appliances like washing machines, dishwashers, refrigerators, gas and electric ranges, and microwave ovens hit the marketplace, the experts were the first to assure the public that this was a completely normal, capitalist progression. Everyone should embrace all of it, now, no question about it. No concerns or troubling feelings expressed.
  • When computers came along, the first thing all the experts did was to line up and proclaim that this was solidly the future—a computer or two in every home. And, when it went from mainframes to personal computing, they especially embraced the decentralization and flowing down of digital power to the unit of the individual human being. They all said, to an expert, “It’s best if individuals all figure this out on their own, chose their own values, and place their own bets.” It’s what they said. Trust me!
  • Then came the Internet and the Web. Once again, all the experts dismissed all doubt and instead, admonished looking to the future, banking heavily on its wide adoption, never looking back. None of them posed or raised cautionary or insurmountable problems or obstacles.

It’s human nature to poo poo all that’s new new. I’ve been doing it with hiphop and rap forever, and you can too—because its hiphop and rap. But the foregoing bullet list is merely a small sample of all that the anointed experts throughout ages of centralized hierarchical authority have mocked, derided, and dismissed in the service of the sovereign elite.

Understand it from their point of view. Life is short, they have their privileged positions of power and influence, plus taxing authority, and they have a lavish gala someplace, at least once per month. What’s not to love? Why rock the damn boat? And hey, we can already show we care. What do you think charities and foundations are for?

Sovereigns need experts to hedge against rapid and revolutionary change, because whether religion, science, social evolution, or finance, the population gets to make excuses too. And if you’re going to make excuses, play a victim, or whatever way you’re going to complain about human progress, it’s better to refer to an expert than to a King or a Queen—it sounds better; and almost, like being smart and discerning.

You’re in charge of your own mind, dammit; you cited an expert!

Smart sovereigns and the smart experts in their service understand well that short of dictatorship, and with a modicum of free markets, they can’t prevent any of this change long term. All this, then, is for the purpose of management, giving sovereign and staff time to understand it, chew on it, angle it, spin it…to work out details, to eventually control it by embracing it and bringing it under its wing—to ultimately lend the impression that it was their idea in the first place, or at least by their encouragement; and taking credit is where their true and essential whoredom lies in modern Western democracy. Al Gore—who created the Internet after his dad created the highway system—the guy you’d have to invent if he didn’t exist—is far too obvious to be considered masterful, but it’s cute and strangely endearing.

Bless Al Gore’s heart.

Bitcoin. $7,000, up to $8,000. The current range. When does the bubble pop…as you hear the pleas from the experts? Please, can’t it pop, already? We’re waiting.

Uh, they’re conflating.

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