I Warned About Supply Chain Breakdown In April 12, 2020, 18 Months Ago

So yea: a classic I-told-you-so post.

Shortly after I began tossing up posts about the newest religion, cult, idol, icon, loved, and adored—Covidism—in March, 2020, I wrote this post: Coronavirus #1: The Innocent and the Guilty. I’ll quote myself.

That [previous] post is primarily about what I saw as driving it when I called bullshit from day one, and knew in my gut I was right and would be right—because virus don’t care; virus don’t give a shit. It’s: politics, internet, social media, and smartphones. I’ve taken to calling much of it smartphone epidemiology. […]

In a perfect world, everyone who advocated for this shut down insanity would starve to death. Justice.

You see, it’s not just a matter of “start it back up,” the bla bla out of all these talking head mouths who have no concept of the complexity and capital that must be serviced to maintain a supply chain that gets myriad goods to point of sale at cost to consumer that’s affordable. Not to mention, crops have growing cycles and seasons, ignoramuses, and you’ve killed the shit in its prime, fools. […]

[Quote story where farmers are dumping product right and left to rot]

You stupid fucking ignorant fools, advocates in any way for this insanity on the basis of faux concern, virtue signaling, and moralizing for LIVES!!! I wanna puke.

Well, if you don’t starve to death, I hope I at least get to laugh in your fucked faces when your grocery carts cost $1,000+ at checkout. I base that on a complex model I just cooked up in an Excel spreadsheet, so fear that it may be right. It’s a COMPUTER MODEL!!!

I do strive to be less vitriolic some days. That said, here we are, 18 months later and what’s all over the news?

Muh Suppli3s Chainz!!!

I was scrolling through Fox News’ YouTube channel a couple of days ago and it must have been 50% of the clip titles had something to do with Supply Chain issues and panic over the impact on Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year holidays coming up. Typical. Presents under the tree more than food on the table, still. Well, since America has an average of 30% excess calories in storage at 3,500 kcal per pound of fat, still a ways to go maybe…

I hear tell that even Biden bumbled through a teleprompter reading, and part of the solution is to keep shipping ports open 24/7 for offloading, as if these problems are a result of a shortage of working hours, or that shipping ports have never pulled OT before.

Can’t get overtime approved! Yea, that’s it.

…You know what I love about the Democrats in office? It’s that they are 100% correct in their assessment of their constituencies. They know their voters are utterly dumb as fuck. If not, they know that the smarter ones are devoid of all principles and will sell out or whore out every time. Finally, they are so damn confident in their valid assessment that they constantly signal publicly how fucking stupid and helpless their voters are, knowing damn well they’re too stupid to recognize any implications. And the sell-outs and whore-outs? They’re so invested they’ll play right in and help herd the sheep.

Anyway, supply chains are characterized as chains because not only are there a lot of links, but they have to execute in sequence and they’re only as strong as the weakest link. Covid has run roughshod over every aspect of all links comprising virtually all chains from smallest to largest for over 18 months, now.

The Wall Street Journal is catching on: Global Supply-Chain Problems Escalate, Threatening Economic Recovery

Global supply-chain bottlenecks are feeding on one another, with shortages of components and surging prices of critical raw materials squeezing manufacturers around the world.

The supply shocks are already showing signs of choking off the recovery in some regions.

Part of the problem is a global economy that is out of sync on the pandemic, restrictions and recovery. Factories and retailers in Western economies that have largely emerged from lockdowns are eager for finished products, raw materials and components from longtime suppliers in Asia and elsewhere. But many countries in Asia are still in the throes of lockdowns and other coronavirus-related restrictions, constricting their ability to meet demand.

https://archive.md/EnNkQ

Tell me about it. Nikkei has a Covid-19 Recovery Index comprised of 121 slots. It measures a bunch of different variables to come up with a score. Typically, the place where Covid came from—CHINA!!!—holds the numero uno slot and where I live, Thailand? Trading slots #120 and #121 with Vietnam. Like I always tell other expats: there are distinct and quantifiable advantages in geo arbitrage to living in a country with an 80-90 average IQ. Through a global panic with panic-porn on everyone’s “smart” phones isn’t one of them…

I’m reminded of a short post I wrote in 2007, No Rationing; Courtesy of a “Benevolent” State.

Consumer Paradise Zimbabwe

…I subscribe to a daily morning financial newsletter, Morning Brew, which I thoroughly hate and loathe, which is why I do it. I read or skim every issue. Here’s the first time those leftist wankers wrote about supply chains, over a month ago.

Supply chain madness

Turns out, the Ever Given being stuck in the Suez Canal was the least of our supply chain worries this year. Factory closures in Asia due to Covid-19 have prolonged bottlenecks, driving inflation higher and delaying your new couch from arriving.

Some stats that illustrate the brokenness of the global supply chain:

– The chip shortage will cost $210 billion this year, according to a new estimate.

– Nike said 80% of its shoe factories in Vietnam are closed.

– This month, the line of container ships waiting to enter Los Angeles’s and Long Beach’s neighboring ports hit an all-time high of 65 vessels.

That’s reasonably objective reporting. It wasn’t an issue any Democrat moron was aware of because it had not become something political requiring fear-assuaging for their children, yet. Now, you have to observe how the leftist sell-out and whore-out work over time.

Southwest Airlines cancelled 1,800+ flight this weekend (11 Oct, a month later)

Southwest Airlines’s weekend was as chaotic as its boarding process. It canceled over 800 flights on Saturday and more than 1,000 yesterday—representing 28% of all flights scheduled for Sunday. Southwest blamed air traffic control issues, a staffing shortage, and disruptive weather, but no other airlines seemed to have problems.

– The FAA said in a statement that yeah, there were a few hours of delays due to staffing issues…in Jacksonville, FL. But that had been resolved Friday.

– What could be contributing to the cancellations: Southwest runs a point-to-point route network, where a single delay can create an avalanche of other flight disruptions.

Likely not related, but interesting context: After Southwest decided last week to implement a vaccine mandate, pilots in Dallas, where Southwest is based, planned a “sickout” to protest the rule. The pilots union has denied any organized strike, but did warn the airline that requiring pilots to get vaccinated could lead to flight disruptions.

“Likely not related.” So for all the morons of the Democrat constituency, this is “oh, good, move on, nothing to see here,” because they’re all fucking morons. But, Morning Brew is a daily financial newsletter by sell-outs and whore-outs primarily for other well-off sell-outs and whore-outs and in that “interesting context,” it’s leftist narrative talking-marching-order dissemination.

Americans Quit Their Jobs at a Record Rate in August (13 Oct)

4.3 million people quit their jobs in the US in August, the Labor Department said yesterday. That’s an astronomical amount—the most on record—and represents nearly 3% of the workforce.

Where are workers quitting the most?

– 892,000 workers left restaurants, bars, and hotels.

– 721,000 left their retail gigs.

– 706,000 ditched their jobs in professional business services and 534,000 in health care and social assistance.

What’s going on? In an economy where jobs are plentiful and the people to fill them are scarce, workers are finding themselves with much more leverage. If their jobs are uber stressful, require long hours for low pay, and pose a greater risk of contracting Covid-19, there’s little incentive to stick around. Just look at the number of people quitting the hospitality and retail industries.

Big picture: This is all a major headache for employers, who have to raise wages and dangle more benefits to find anyone to work for them. Businesses had 10.4 million job openings in the country in August, down from July’s record of 11.1 million but still extremely elevated.—NF

Get that? It has to do with the “risk of contracting Covid-19.” And the “big picture” is just that employees are quitting in droves because, being so flush, they’re simply vying for a bit more spiff in the deal.

Has nothing at all to do with Covid policy, making life as miserable as possible on all levels—with a populace who can’t get enough of being paid to stay home while alternatively binging Netflix and jerking off to PornHub—and businesses who will stand up to no government mandate where all government at all levels has realized they can have businesses enforce their shit for them—which, incidentally, began with Milton Friedman’s withholding tax on paychecks, making businesses the primary taxing authority in the United States to this day.

We’ve come to the fruition of the 1935 Social Security Act, making those getting old and increasingly dependent—which is natural—into an entitled, heavily political-activist voting block that on large, dwarfs all your young whiny-woke victims all put together.

In essence, owing to the median age of death from Covid being 80-82 depending on country or region, we’re all made scapegoats for a viral phenomenon where in many data sets—like the UK—the average age of Covid death is actually a year or two greater than average life expectancy.

And so, because the modern world is DEMOCRAT!!! and democrats are either fucking morons, sell-outs, or whore-outs, the entire planet has done trillions of dollars of damage and years of supply-chain bottleneck woes that will kill people, tarnish and straddle young people just getting a start…for 84-yo granny.

I write that last bit above with a bit of trepidation. I benefited from having a great grandmother until I was 29, and my 4 grandparents—all of whom lived between next door and 2 miles away all my young life—didn’t begin the natural passing until I was in my 30s and early 40s. I understand that Social Security and other socialized programs (where you steal money from the young to give to the old) surely eased some of their burdens while also easing some that could have been mine and my immediate family’s.

I fully understand consequentialist and utilitarian arguments. They are data sets that argue that ends justify means.


Since Covid killed my Cabo San Lucas vacation-rental business in 2021, this is my day job. I can't do it without you. Memberships are $10 monthly, $20 quarterly, or $65 annually. Two premium coffees per month. Every membership helps finance this work I do, and if you like what I do, please chip in. No grandiose pitches.

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