Everybody Agrees

Beck has up a treatment of an irrelevant and unimportant article heralding "the end of libertarian politics." It’s a dumb idea, of course, for all the reasons Billy mentions; as does Tucker, whom he quotes.

Go ahead and take a look at that, then drop back by.

I’ve been spending a lot if time lately watching, studying, and trading in the markets. Do you know what I really like about them? Their fundamental nature is so pure, with a balance so fine that in spite of the general notion that entities like the SEC "regulates" the market is sheer nonsense in any really meaningful way. Sure, they have books of regs and throw someone in jail every now and then (I’m not making light of that), but the very plain fact is that they are virtually powerless to regulate the daily buy and sell grind that goes on to the tune of billions and billions of dollars over millions and millions of trades.

To attempt any sort of direct regulation would be to tank the market in an instant. Even when they (or the exchanges) exercise their power to halt trading, what generally happens the moment trading resumes (check the charts about a week after 9/11, when the markets reopened)?

Do you know what else? The markets are a byproduct of human behavior. What do I mean by that? Trends reverse the moment the last person gets on the trend bus. Go back to 1995 through 1999 (click on the image for the large view).


One of the greatest sustained bull markets in history. Look at the bar graph below, representing volume. The more it goes up, the more people are jumping on the bull bus. I can recall during that time receiving an increasing number of mailers from "financial experts" admonishing me to buy their "whatever" in order to take advantage of the crash that was certain to come. Then, in 1998, I began receiving fewer and fewer of those, so that in 1999 and on to 2000, it was increasingly hard to find a bear. Technology had changed everything. Companies no longer needed to generate profits — hell, revenues — for the stock to just keep rising.

The last bear got on the bus going up sometime after we managed to survive the Y2K (remember that?) bug that was going to grind the modern technological world to a halt.

My point? Well, I’m not sure I really have one, other than to observe that I don’t find it the least bit surprising that "libertarians" might be throwing in the towel, at least those who think of themselves as libertarian. Perhaps it won’t be until the last libertarian (so-called) declares that the statists were right all along that someone will come along, or something will happen that changes everything.

Of course, that’s a long-term view, which means it could happen next month, or in 250 or 10,000 years. And that’s why you’ll never find me jumping on that bus.

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  1. Neal on August 18, 2006 at 13:40


    Do you ever spend any time on iTulip.com? You might want to check it out as it has a number of "contrarian" views on what might happen next in the market.

    Though the "what's next" question isn't exactly what your post here was on, but check out a post I made yesterday on "Bad News for Equity Bulls."


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