Unlike the Main Pravda Media, I do not look at landline polls—nor the Main Pravda Media—so everything you are hearing and seeing is utter bullshit, contrived, and fraudulent in my view.
There is precedent. While I have completely called the winner of every single presidential election since Carter-Ford, 1976—when I was 15-yo—I have never said by how much. I even called both the CA recall of Davis, and huge win for Arnold in that same recall election. I never look at polls. I go by my own visceral sense which is informed by looking and reading around, all over.
Allow me to make an exception in this case, and give you what I think, number wise, in terms of data I’ve both looked at myself, and sourced from others:
- Trump gets 60% of the popular (but I think 65% more likely—and I even think CA could go for him, 55-45).
- Trump gets 40 of 52 States in the electoral college, or more. Maybe 42.
Why am I saying this?
Well, this is merely the tip of the iceberg. There’s much, much more:
A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.
I’ve been writing the same thing, particularly on Facebook, since early last spring and have called it 1980 all over again—and for many of the same visceral reasons. This smells exactly like Reagan-Carter, to me.
More later. I really don’t want to give away all my tool bag, just yet. The real, reliable data is out there. You simply need to know where and how to look, and laugh at the idea of pollsters calling people on landlines.