Now trading at $5,300.
But I thought all the “experts” said this “bubble” of “irrational exuberance” over something with “no intrinsic value” was done, done, and done nearly four years ago, when it hit $1,000 at the end of 2013, creating hundreds, even thousands of Bitcoin millionaires? They’re experts, right? How could they have been so wrong by a 5x order of magnitude? Does being wrong by 5x order of magnitude over the space of 4 years! make you an expert, an idiot, or an ignorant?
There are now 1,000 other crypto coins to trade, and a few hundred trade in large volume, for pennies. Most are crap, but lots aren’t, and some have already proven themselves. Others will, too.
How sure are you that something like this isn’t going to happen again, once institutions (like Chase and Goldman), hedge funds (15 already, with about 90 in the pipeline gearing up), and the general public start getting into it? There is a bubble coming, alright, but we’re still in stage two. Stage three hasn’t even started yet. This is like DotCom 1995. We likely have 3-5 years of bubble yet to ride.
Get in while the getting is still good.
Latest Primary Resources:
- How To Trade Cryptocurrencies (updated regularly)
- My Real-Time Crypto Portfolio (see the Update at the bottom for the link)
- My Latest Trade Notice (as of the date of this post)
Update 10/13/17: It hit $5,800 overnight, now trading in 5700s.
Yeah baby. I am on this and loving it. In terms of long run values I think it’s useful to think in terms of per capita metrics. If the long run supply of Bitcoin is 21 million coins and there are 7 billion people in the world, then there is about 0.003 Bitcoin per capita. Now if residual demand for liquidity in crypto is around $100 per capita (third world and first world averages here) that would imply a Bitcoin price of $33,333.
Now, Bitcoin is only worth what someone is willing to pay at the end of the day but I think that using metrics like this provides a useful scale to get a feel for orders of magnitude.
By that time, we won’t even be talking about BitCOINS, we’ll be talking satoshis, 1/100 millionth of a coin, currently worth about 1/200th of a US penny.
If run similar numbers for gold for example, at a guess say you have 0.75 ounces of gold per capita and a price of $1,250 per ounce, then you’re looking at around $940 worth per capita. For Bitcoin to have the same value per capita as gold, Bitcoin’s price would need to be $313,333. Now I like my Bitcoin more than gold so I am kind of hoping it will be worth more than this one day.
…So, let’s suppose that a Satoshi becomes worth the equivalent of 10 cents.
21 million bitcoin x 100 million satoshis = 2.1+15 10 cent units, 2,100,000,000,000,000. So that’s $210,000,000,000,000 market cap, divided by 21 million coins is $10 million per coin. :)
I think….
Peter Schiff has been anti-bitcoin for a long time and has been facing endless ridicule for each of his bitcoin posts on Facebook.
Seems that every time it dips some, he talks about how its a sign of weakness despite the monstrous post-dip level compared to just weeks before.
A little while ago he responded to a critic with “lets see what happens the next time it tests 4K.”
facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10159122078950062
It did, and now once again higher than ever.
At this point I wonder if he’s just trolling, since his post yesterday was “The bubble grows even bigger!”
I’ve never paid much attention to Schiff. I believe he was right on the housing bubble deal, but that has nothing to do with crypto.
None of these guys out there has the slightest clue what they’re talking about. Lots of the comments at the FB post are real screamers. Plus, Peter’s dad was a numbskull too, all of his tax code arguments. The tax law is what the IRS says it is.
Generally, I ignore Chicken Little’s everywhere.
I bought bitcoin because of your talking about it in 2014. Bought .1 – .5 per week on the ride down from $550 to $250 then stopped after a few months. Nervous about the price, figured I had enough if it ever went somewhere.
Now I wish I’d bought more.
And this summer I learned a costly but valuable lesson about trying to time the market. When it hit $2800 and fell back down fast I sold at around $2100 figuring I’d jump back in if it dropped. Realized it was going up again so thought I’m not missing this and jumped in again. At a reduced holding. Spent the next few months trying to rebuild to where I previously was by timing the market and made up some ground at the expense of a ton of time and stress. Around the same time I sold my second car so dumped some proceeds in to get my holdings above where they originally were.
Felt bad at the time, but in addition to the hard lesson about market timing it feels pretty damn good right now.
I was in the process of buying my first bitcoin this week when the price was at 4,800. Had the credit card out and all….decided to back off. Price today is 5,700. Fng A.