A Fresh Look At All Cause Mortality Lately

I’ve annotated this chart below

I grow weary of both reading about Covid and vaccines, and posting about them. Still, when something a bit novel comes along, I find it worthy to unpack it.

What I’m going to do here is a TL;DR post (too long; didn’t read). That is, I’m going to take a very long, complicated, stats and maths post and reduce it to the essentials so that it’s easily accessible for almost anyone. I’m not an expert in statistics or maths. Mathematics was my primary course of study in university through the first two years, then computer programming, then I went practical and finished with a business degree—with tons more maths, computers, and stats course credits than needed or required—causing me an extra 2/3rds of a year and 25% more total credits than needed to degree out with the general business degree I wanted. That has served me well, I think.

The post is by Steve Kirsch, a wealthy Silicon Valley entrepreneur, educated at MIT.

Survey shows over 500,000 killed by the COVID vaccines so far

—A simple survey anyone can do provides convincing evidence that the COVID vaccines have killed over 500,000 Americans. They should be halted. Now.

Don’t believe it? Read on. Believe it? Read on.

simple survey of my readers provided some extremely compelling evidence that 1) the US government has killed over 500,000 previously healthy Americans and 2) that the vaccine actually caused the deaths.

It took me around 30 minutes to create the survey and 11 hours to wait for highly statistically significant results.

I was able to accomplish something in less than 12 hours that the CDC has been unable to accomplish in 18 months: prove causality. We see both dose dependency and enormous changes in ACM deaths pre- vs. post-vaccine. We satisfy all five Bradford-Hill criteria applicable to vaccines.

We used 400 independent observers. I should note that all follow my Substack so they are correlated: all have excellent judgment, high intelligence, and immunity from mass formation effects. So they have the ability to see what is truly going on.

The survey compared the all-cause mortality (ACM) death rates just PRIOR to a vaccine dose to the ACM death rates immediately AFTER the dose. I predicted they would be dramatically higher after the dose and the effect would be dose dependent. It appears I was right. In fact, the survey projects far more deaths than I thought possible.

The number of deaths computed from the reports could be as high as 2M Americans, but the 500,000 number seems more credible, so I’m discounting the result by 4X to account for biases and confounders.

The first thing that makes me take notice is that the survey results were done really fucking quick, so as to primarily get his most engaged, self-selected readers, to limit other forms of bias such as gaming from haters (though haters can be pretty engaged, so there’s that). Second, he adjusts for this by cutting his results by 4 times.

Third—most importantly and tough to game—the death toll progressively from 1st through 4th jab is very believable if the hypothesized cause has any merit. This is like a meta-check on whether your data may be useless.

We found Dose #4 caused only a 1.27X increase compared with 5.5X to 8.3X for doses 1 and 2 respectively and 2.3X for Dose #3. If this were a highly biased population, Dose 4 would have caused a larger discrepancy, but it’s approaching 1:1 as we’d expect.


The basic explanation for this is that doses 1 & 2 kill the most susceptible so there’s fewer to kill early, later, with subsequent bombardements. In war, you kill the most on your 1st and 2nd bombing runs. Then, there’s not a lot left to kill and destroy. Eventually the bombing stops.

Stuff just doesn’t add up and many have been pointing that out to deaf ears. It takes levels of data proportional shift (or “spike” should I say?) to become undeniable and unable to be ignored.

I thought my May 13 survey would be important. I was right. I hit the jackpot on this one. Even if the effects are 100X smaller than what we found, it’s still 10X more than any reasonable stopping condition for a vaccine (>1 death per million vaccinated).

Everyone I know has reported more deaths after vaccination than the number of deaths right before they were going to be vaccinated. That’s impossible if the vaccines are safe.

If the vaccines are perfectly safe:

  1. The death rates immediately prior to any dose should be exactly the same as the death rate immediately after the dose.
  2. The death rate should not be dose dependent. It should be 1:1 on every single dose (for the death rate before:after).

Guess what? Both of these “rules” are violated. Not by a little. By a lot. Like a factor of 5X to 8X increase in ACM in the month after the shot compared to the month before the shot according to 400 independent investigators.

And this is a VERY statistically significant result just 11 hours after I posted my Substack article.

Yes, because he did this quick, it’s very believable that his data is of much higher quality, as already stated.

It should not escape notice that the doctors, denoted by blue are uniformly zero. The medical professionals, denoted in red, are outspoken. That too corresponds with much of what we’ve seen. It should also be noted that these are pretty small numbers. But, when could you take a set of 400 individuals, ask them about deaths they’ve observed recently that corresponds with particular supposedly non-lethal events and get anything but nearly zero?

The bottom line is that if you extrapolate the data to the general population and known historical all-cause mortality, you come up with nearly 2 million excess deaths in the US since the vaccination campaigns.

Steve admits the survey is biased and that’s why they cut the estimate by 3/4. He also did a check with Medicare all-cause mortality data. It went up from about 200K to 300K per month.

Whatever you think or believe about all of the foregoing, this chart should give pause because it shows unequivocally that the “vaccines” did squat and you must allow that had their been none of them it’s plausible that the “pandemic” would have cleared itself in early 2021.

Between original antigenic sin, antibody dependent enhancement, and negative efficiency where the jabbed are becoming more prone to Covid infection—not to mention downstream effects of possible immune deficiency—there’s one fuck of a lot to be skeptical about with these experimental “emergency-use” drugs. Look around you. See any emergency beyond the one the vaccines may have caused and are still causing?

Yea, I know, I’m biased too. It’s just that I can barely remember the last time I got a vaxx jab. Maybe about 51 years ago, when 9 or 10. And it’s an imperative now?

Please. Fuck the fuck off. And thank you.

Steve summarizes his long and detailed post, most of which I did not include in this TL;DR.

Our estimate of 2M deaths seems too high based on the CDC numbers, but too low based on the embalmer death data. But even if we got it wrong by a factor of 1,000 (which I doubt), the vaccines should be halted now.

This survey (along with biological plausibility) meets all five Bradford-Hill causality criteria and shows a number of deaths too large to ignore.


…In my optimistic bias I always seem to be seeing this and that to signal, to me at least, that times are changing, tides are turning, and pendulums are swinging. I’m particularly fond of history-turning events where one side overplayed their hand and is hoist by their own petard.

I see so much of that these days that I have to guard myself against going full-on fanboy.

I watched this 7-minute Laura Ingraham clip last night that I think touches on my optimism.

It reminds me that I’m a human being myself and given the race’s success in dealing with mother nature for thousands of years, it’s perhaps something to bank on. That means, when a bunch of bad shit happens and everyone sheepishly does whatever, just have patience and wait.

Will they eventually come around?

They have to and history shows us that they do.


  1. Currin on May 15, 2022 at 22:48

    Thank you.

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